This Brexit divorce bill thing.

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Micky Finn, Nov 29, 2017.

  1. Carlycu5tard

    Carlycu5tard Active Member

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    2029's not going to happen!

    That's a bit of an over reaction.

    I mean - there is a chance that this govt. might want to appease remainers so much they'll screw up the entire negotiation and the benefits will take a little longer to come - but I still think 2029 will happen.

    Unless of course you're refering to the nuclear threat of Trump and North Korea - but I can't see how that's linked to Brexit.
     
  2. Micky Finn

    Micky Finn Well-Known Member

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    Nope. You've lost it. Why on earth wouldn't 2029 happen?? It's a year. Although as you say, Trump's doing his best to realise your suggestion.

    Brexit won't happen. The whole thing will collapse and we'll stay where we are, after more than a bit of saying sorry and tugging our collective forelock to the EU. None of the parties want it, but equally none of them want to have to attempt to see it through, knowing the backlash that will come from the out vote when we scrap the whole thing. The referendum was only ever advisory - not actually binding in any way, shape or form. Cameron's political gameplaying leading the country to almost certain ruin. A tiny percentage of the electorate actually knew what they were voting for or against. The sooner someone shows a bit of backbone and ends this utter fiasco the better.
     
  3. Carlycu5tard

    Carlycu5tard Active Member

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    **** me and Jimmy Cricket reckons it's the leavers that wibble...
     
  4. Micky Finn

    Micky Finn Well-Known Member

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    Why is that 'wibble'? It's a reasonable opinion, nothing more, although the advisory referendum bit is fact. Not asking you or anyone else to agree. You're great at chucking stuff out there without actually explaining any of it.
     
  5. Ext

    Extremely Northern Well-Known Member

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    Another Brexit debate where everyone can see the other side's views. No belittling or snide digs and insinuations. Excellent.

    Mamadou Thiam tho.
     
  6. Wig

    Wiggy Active Member

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    The majority or Brexiteers havent got two beans to rub together so thats rather unlikely.

    P.s the empire is long gone mate
     
  7. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    No, it doesn't - although it was replaced by 1333/2011. It doesn't specify anything about bananas, it species how they should be *classified* mainly for growers and wholesalers. You could always buy or sell bananas of any size or curvature - you just couldn't sell them as "Class 1" or "Extra" if they went over the specification for the standard.
     
  8. Ext

    Extremely Northern Well-Known Member

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    So they're racist, bigoted, thick, and now skint. Like it.
     
  9. Wig

    Wiggy Active Member

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    Well it’s not a great surprise when the majority of people in the country are skint.
     
  10. Carlycu5tard

    Carlycu5tard Active Member

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    It's a wibble because it's completely unrealistic nonsense. It's the exactly the kind of thing this generation of snowflake millenials would imagine was possible - after all if they cry long enough to their mams it won't happen and their mum won't put actually follow through on the threat to throw the ipad in the bin.

    As i'm legally qualified I'm perfectly aware of the legal standing of the referundum - utterly shambolic legislation - and without doubt a cynical and naive move which backfired on call me Dave. (That we can agree on - although the benefits that will come from this happy accident he didn't envisage and things may get worse before they get better.)

    However you are obviously aware the treaty of Rome has provision within it that the European Union is required to eject members from the Union who do not follow the democratic wishes of their electorate. These rights are enforcable by the European Court of justice and not by the european parliament or undemocratic dictatorship that is the commission.

    So imagine the **** storm when i - and millions of other leavers turn up at the European Court of Justice demanding we be thrown out of the EU under the EU's own laws. And the EU can't do anyting about it. (although I sure they'll find some corrupt way around it after years more uncertainty for the UK)

    Even if the corrupt ECJ bottles it - we don't have the right to UN trigger article 50. We have to leave and re-join (although there could be an indefinate extension which would require the unanimous agreement of all 27 other members every x years)

    So having triggered Article 50 we'd have to rejoin join the Euro - give up the rebate enter Schengen accept straight bananas and all the rest of the corrupt inefficient bribery infested Franco-German orientated ****. (again - after years more wrangling in the courts and years more uncertainty)

    And that's before any of the political **** storm, hung parliaments, resurgence of UKIP and worse and votes for Scottish Independance / Irish Unity at home.

    So if you think the political uncertainty of going forwards looks bad - you haven't begun to see the damage going backwards will cause.

    And after all this - if we do go back in - what happens in 2029 when the dust has settled - and the EU is back in its' old ways. Remainers seem to have conveniently forgotten what an utter fecking shambles the EU is. (not unlike the fact - whilst we're throwing them about - how many people now think they were against the Iraq war when indeed they weren't) Most remainers were "remain and reform" This EU love fest which seems to have erupted was certainly not in evidence from any party - and if reform was possible - the EU should have presented it to Call me Dave rather than shafting him and forcing his hand to have the referendum.

    I'm perfectly willing and capable of debating this civilly or otherwise - and agreeing to disagree - or indeed changing my mind. - I'm also prepared to live with the consequences of my vote for me and my children - and in 2029 if it's all fecked I'll admit I was wrong and I will have to look at my children and explain myself.

    But of course you Remainers are so clever and us leavers are so stupid as I don't have two beans to rub together inside my thick racist noggin - so I should be able to throw things out there without having to explain cos you lot fecking know it all don't you;

    FFS with bells on.
     
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  11. Micky Finn

    Micky Finn Well-Known Member

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    A well-reasoned argument, completely made void by your pathetic name-calling in the first and last paragraphs. Grow up, man.
     
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  12. Carlycu5tard

    Carlycu5tard Active Member

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    Sorry. Emotions can get the better of the best of us.
     
  13. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    Wibble covered it I think.
     
  14. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    In fairness and I hope it happens for the comedy value I think we are far more likely to go for the Norway option staying in the CU and SM whilst accepting the 4 freedoms. That sticks to the Ref as it was a binary question and will give the idiots who voted for it out of racism a heart attack. Bring it on. No Leaver will be able to complain about will of the people but now we will have absolutely no say over anything.
     
  15. Ext

    Extremely Northern Well-Known Member

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    https://www.ft.com/content/268fa1a2-ca2f-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

     
  16. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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  17. MDG

    MDG Well-Known Member

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    Disagree, the points made were good and well reasonable as you state. Not in any way made void, just remove any name calling.

    Otherwise the whole remoaner argument on here would be void based on the calls of racist, bigot etc...

    Personally, I read everyones views. May not change mine, probably because I've done my own research into the leave / remain pro's and cons. Each side had something positive but the negatives especially long term for me stacked up more on the remain side. Increased political entwinement being one of the major threats. Once VETOS are slowly done away with in accordance with clause 48 of the lisbon treaty (read up on it people), there will be no room for reform the way the majority of the British people and governments have voiced, the national voice will be unheard. I shiver at the fact that the EU vision is mainly based around all member countries productivity and growth but having targets driven by the economic power of the German economy. In short, the UK was the only real comparable country to Germany (maybe France in parts but not as a whole economy). How can they expect areas like Greece to meet such targets?...Oh yeah, they can't they just destroy the country.. then what do they do, set them another set of financial targets which they will never ever meet, to be met by massive EU threats and penalties on trade etc.. Disgusting..

    If we hadn't made the choice to leave when we did, it would make the process far more painful another 10 years down the line when even the majority of remoaners realise where the EU is heading.

    £50 Billion to get out now, roughly equates to what would have been our net contribution for the next 4 to 5 years. This takes into account all the ever decreasing rebates we currently get and EU investment into the UK (Basically our own money anyway).. I'm basing this on 2016 our net contribution to the EU was aprox £8.1 billion, and increasing in forthcoming years.

    So if you look at what is being mooted. £50 Billion, with a two year transition period where we retain the same arrangments as we have now. That £50 billion is already shrinking down. So if for instance those 2 years were worth £20 Billion, our settlement looks more like £30 billion. Now take into consideration that £30 billion is to ensure we pay our dues in terms of projects etc already agreed within the whole EU. Those already agreed projects include those agreed for substantial investment back into the UK, we aren't privy to the exact figures for this so can't really speculate. But for instance if that is porssibly another 3 to 5 billion, our settlement is down to approx 25 billion. I have no quarrel with this figure if we have already to given our commitment to investment.

    Most of the specualtion I'm seeing from camp remain, is again project fear based on the worst case scenario which I can't envisage ever happening. People saying how our trade will suffer being on WTO tarrifs. That isn't going to happen because as we know, trade from the EU to the UK is also massive and it is firmly in the EU's self protectionism stance to work through a comprehensive deal, even if it means long term the UK will benefit by having the ability to trade more freely worldwide. Ignore all these scaremongering posts of doom and gloom at the moment, they are doing the country more harm than good and the people releasing them should take a long hard look at themselves. If no comprehensive trade was going to be made, we wouldn't be offering anywhere as near as £50 billion. It wouldn't make sense.

    I'm speculating here but I envisage out future trading relationship will be that of free trade between businesses or as much as we have today, however that free trade will be free at the point of the business user. Like anything else, it won't be free because the only way we will get access to the single market on current terms is by paying something into the EU pot. This for me will come from central government public purse and although it looks like free trade at the point of use, something like corporation tax will be increased to cover the membership payment. This would also enable the Irish border to work as freely as it currently does in terms of trade.

    What we won't have though is the additional contributions to the EU for the elements which most of the country seemed to oppose, like the ECJ, EU finance budgets, law making etc. I can only see positives with that arrangment.

    So the next 5 years, we need to come together, make this country work, develop our lowly manufacturing base and ensure that we hold our governments to account in terms of inward investment in public services from the eventual savings from not paying our bloated EU membership.

    I believe we can make it a success, people just need to get on board, stop bickering. Believe in each other and in themselves. Other countries must really laugh at the large sections of this country who don't believe we can function perfectly well as a standalone nation. That's not being a little Englander as some people seem to think. It's about being positive and making sure we prosper.

    I'd love to be on the brexit negotiating team.. Surely it's just lacking some humanity, humility and common sense.. That goes for the EU side as well.

    War and peace over.... :)
     
  18. Ext

    Extremely Northern Well-Known Member

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    It's not up to them - the point is that Norway style access isn't the subservient subject that some claim. This 'sh1t or bust' narrative needs binning, it's peddled by vested interests on both sides pushing their own agendas.
     
  19. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    The EU can't throw a country out, but they can suspend membership. Voluntary leaving was only possible due to the Treaty of Lisbon in 2009.

    Reform of the EU is under way, and now the UK is now longer blocking it, at a faster rate than previously

    The author of A50 is under the impression that it can be revoked. However, it would require agreement from the other countries - so it would probably involve joining Schengen and joining the Euro. Although I would prefer that - I know mine is not a majority opinion on that matter - and closer integration. I do see the idea of individual nation states as rather immature from a societal evolutionary context. I still think within 5-10 generation the world will be down to under 20 continental blocs (and off-world governments too). From an evolutionary standpoint, Brexit is an aberration that is likely to fail.

    Other than that, good ranting. Just remember though - this generation of snowflake millennials as you call it will be running the country in 10-15 years, and they will rejoin the EU if Brexit is anything other than a complete success.
     
  20. Carlycu5tard

    Carlycu5tard Active Member

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    S

    You may technically be right - but my interpretation is that the suspension is valid and must stay in force until the country enacts the democratic will of the people - in this case to leave the EU. Same meat different gravy. But you and I can debate this one all we like - it's not you and me that would get to decide this one.

    Again the author of A50 may be under that impression - but the point is it is neither in his gift nor in the UK governments gift and the concessions would still create the political turmoil.

    What you call "Reform" I call "redoubling the trouble" unfortuantely the Irish, Swedish, Dutch, Danes and particularly the Polish are very annoyed with us as we are not there as a heavy weight to cause trouble to keep the wrong kind of reform in check. I wonder how long after the dust settle until Nexit or Dexit raises it's head again.

    The kind of reform that would be needed to change my mind however looks further away than ever.


    I am minded to agree with you on the nation states issues. There is some good evidence to support this from the USA and South America. However the evolution you indicate must be predicated by cultural assimilation prior to political.

    China and India are case in point - despite being one nation for many many years - politically ethnic and religious tensions and cultural diversity keep regions very much in conflict and discrimination and oppression remains rife.

    If your mature state of the world was anywhere near Rohingers, Catalans, Scots and Crimeans would be happy - the balkan crisis would never have happened and the USSR woudl'nt have broken up so quickly after the fall of communism. 10 generations may be right - but Apple, McDonalds, Xfactor and Coca cola will have more to do with it than any high brow sophisticated Eureka moment that simultaneously hits the worlds conciousness - and to this point culturally we have as high a likelyhood of becoming Airstrip 1 of Oceania than any part of Eurasia when the snowflakes rule the world.
     

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